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Survival Statistics for Cancer of the Pancreas

Cancer of the exocrine pancreas is rarely curable and has an overall survival rate of less than 4%.The highest cure rate occurs if the tumor is truly localized to the pancreas; however, this stage of disease accounts for fewer than 20% of cases. For those patients with localized disease and small cancers (<2 cm) with no lymph node metastases and no extension beyond the “capsule” of the pancreas, complete surgical resection can yield actuarial 5-year survival rates of 18% to 24%. For patients with advanced cancers, the overall survival rate of all stages is less than 1% at 5 years with most patients dying within 1 year.
 
More national stats
Survival with Surgery
Survival with more modern surgery
Survival with chemo-radiation

 



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Survival Data from NCDB
Stage Incidence 5y Survival
All   4%
I 16% 9%
II 8% 5%
III 13% 5%
IV 41% 1%
Survival Data from SEER (NCI)
Stage Incidence 5y Survival
All   4%
Local 7% 18%
Regional 25% 6%
Distant 47% 1%

 

 

Cancer of the pancreas: diagnostic accuracy and survival statistics.

Gudjonsson B, Livstone EM, Spiro HM, Cancer 1978 Nov;42(5):2494-506


We have reviewed the natural history, reliability of diagnosis, and survivorship of 100 patients with adenocarcinoma of the pancreas, in the context of a thorough review of the literature on survival after therapy for adenocarcinoma of the pancreas. There is 40--62.5% error in the histologic confirmation of the diagnosis of pancreatic cancer. The error by inspection and palpation alone at the time of surgery may be as great as 25%. The absolute 5 year survival rate calculated from 61 clinical studies representing approximately 15,000 patients is 0.4%. The best series in the current literature has only 3% 5 year rate based upon the total population of pancreatic cancer patients. 12.3% of 5 year survivors from the world literature did not have curative surgery.

Cancer of the pancreas. 50 years of surgery.

Gudjonsson B, Cancer 1987 Nov 1;60(9):2284-303

Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut.

The course of 196 patients with proven carcinoma of the pancreas seen at Yale New Haven Hospital from 1972 to 1982 was analyzed. Only 73% of the patients were preoperatively expected to have cancer of the pancreas. The patients who underwent resection had the longest mean survival but also the longest total hospital stay. Twenty-seven patients survived 1 year or more, but nonresected patients constituted 81.5% of this group. The only 5-year survivor did not undergo resection. Forty-seven percent of patients who survived 1 year and had not undergone gastroduodenal bypass, developed duodenal obstruction. It was not possible to identify a subset of patients with a favorable prognosis. A review totaling approximately 37000 patients, of whom 4100 had undergone resections, revealed only 156 survivors, 12 of whom had not been resected, for an overall survival rate of only 0.4%. No author had more than 3.4% of the total number of patients as 5-year survivors.

Long-term survival after resection for ductal adenocarcinoma of the pancreas. Is it really improving?

Nitecki SS, Sarr MG, Colby TV, van Heerden JA, Ann Surg 1995 Jan;221(1):59-66

Department of Surgery, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota.

OBJECTIVE: The authors review their recent experience with resected pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: Ductal adenocarcinoma of the pancreas has traditionally had a 5-year survival rate less than 10% after curative resection. Recently, several groups have reported markedly improved 5-year survival rates (approaching 25%) for patients undergoing curative resection. METHODS: Institutional experience with 186 consecutive patients (1981-1991) with pathologic diagnoses of ductal adenocarcinoma undergoing pancreatic resection was reviewed. Histologic specimens of all 3-year survivors (n = 31) were re-reviewed by two pathologists, one internal and one external; nonductal pancreatic cancers then were excluded. RESULTS: After histologic re-review, 12 patients did not have ductal adenocarcinoma, leaving a total of 174 patients for analysis (102 men, 72 women; mean age 63 years, range 34-82 years). Mean follow-up was 22 months (range 4-109). Classical pancreaticoduodenectomy was performed in 71%, pylorus-preserving resection in 9%, and total pancreatectomy in 20%. Hospital mortality was 3%. Twenty-eight patients (16%) had macroscopically incomplete resections; 98 (56%) had lymph node metastases within the resected specimens, and 21 patients (12%) had extensive perineural invasion. Overall actuarial 5-year survival was 6.8%.Five-year survival was greater for node-negative versus node-positive patients (14% vs. 1%,), and for smaller (< 2 cm) versus larger tumors (20% vs. 1%,). The 5-year survival for the subset of patients with negative nodes and no perineural or duodenal invasion (69 patients) was 23%. Mean survival of the 12 excluded patients was 53 +/- 7 months compared with 17.5 +/- 1 months in the 174 patients with ductal pancreatic cancer. CONCLUSIONS: Five-year survival for patients undergoing pancreatic resection for lesions deemed to be clinically "curable" intraoperatively and histologically reviewed/confirmed to be ductal adenocarcinoma of the pancreas is approximately 7%. Survival is greater (23%) in the subset of patients with negative nodes and no duodenal or perineural invasions. Pathologic review of all patients with pancreatic ductal cancer adenocarcinoma is mandatory if survival data are to be meaningful.

Long-term survival after curative resection for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma. Clinicopathologic analysis of 5-year survivors.

Conlon KC, Klimstra DS, Brennan MF   Ann Surg 1996 Mar;223(3):273-9

Department of Surgery, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York 10021, USA.

OBJECTIVE: The authors reviewed the clinicopathologic characteristics of patients who underwent resection with curative intent for ductal adenocarcinoma of the pancreas between 1983 and 1989. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: Recent studies have demonstrated a reduction in the morbidity and mortality of pancreatic resection and improvement in the actuarial 5-year survival for patients with resected ductal adenocarcinoma. METHODS: Resection with curative intent was performed on 118 of 684 patients (17%) with pancreatic cancer admitted to the authors' institution. Clinical, demographic, treatment, and pathologic variables were analyzed. The original material for all cases was reviewed; nonductal cancers were excluded. RESULTS: The head of the gland was the predominant tumor site (n = 102), followed by the body (n = 9), and tail (n = 7). Seventy-two percent of the patients underwent pancreaticoduodenectomies, 15% underwent total pancreatectomies, 10% underwent distal pancreatectomies, and 3% underwent distal subtotal pancreatectomies. Operative mortality was 3.4%. Median survival was 14.3 months after resection compared with 4.9 months if patients did not undergo resection (p < 0.0001). Twelve patients survived 5 years after surgery (10.2% overall actual 5-year survival rate). Three of the tumors were well differentiated, five were moderately differentiated, and four were poorly differentiated. Extrapancreatic invasion occurred in nine cases (75%), and perineural invasion was present in ten cases (83%). Five tumors exhibited invasion of duodenum, ampulla of Vater, and/or common bile duct, and an additional tumor invaded the portal vein. Lymph node involvement by carcinoma was noted in five cases (42%). Six patients remain alive without evidence of disease at a median follow-up of 101 months (range, 82-133 months). Five patients died of recurrent or metastatic pancreatic cancer at 60, 61, 62, 64, and 64 months, respectively. One patient died at 84 months of metastatic lung cancer without evidence of recurrent pancreatic disease. CONCLUSIONS: This paper emphasizes the grim prognosis of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma. Five-year survival cannot be equated to cure. Although pancreatectomy offers the only chance for long-term survival, it should be considered as the best palliative procedure currently available for the majority of patients. This emphasizes the need for the development of novel and effective adjuvant therapies for this disease.

Results of 1001 pancreatic resections for invasive ductal adenocarcinoma of the pancreas.

Hirata K, Sato T, Mukaiya M, Yamashiro K, Kimura M, Sasaki K, Denno R
Arch Surg 1997 Jul;132(7):771-6; discussion 777
First Department of Surgery, Sapporo Medical University School of Medicine, Japan.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the recent results of pancreatic resection in patients with invasive ductal adenocarcinoma of the pancreas. DESIGN: Retrospective study. SETTING: Seventy-seven medical facilities belonging to the Japan Society of Pancreatic Surgery. PATIENTS: One thousand one patients who underwent a resection of the pancreas between January, 1, 1991, and December 31, 1994. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Morbidity and survival after surgery for pancreatic cancer according to the modified TNM classification of the International Union Against Cancer. RESULTS: After pancreatic resection, the cumulative postoperative survival rates at 1 and 3 years were 44.5% and 10.3%, respectively. Patients with early-stage cancers had a more prolonged survival time, ie, the cumulative 3-year survival rates for patients with stage I or stage II cancers were 50.4% and 45.5%, respectively; the survival rates for patients with stage III and stage IVa and IVb cancers were 17.6%, 5.7%, and 0%, respectively. The survival rate for patients with N1 or N2 metastasis did not differ appreciably, and both groups had significantly better survival rates than patients with N3 metastasis (P < .001). A significant difference in the postoperative survival time of N1 metastasis was observed between patients with no lymph node dissection (mean survival, 326.4 days) and patients who received a lymph node dissection (D1) (mean survival, 478.2 days) (P < or = .01). CONCLUSIONS: The recent results of pancreatic resection for invasive ductal adenocarcinoma of the pancreas are generally unsatisfactory. Although the outcome of the patients with an N1 metastasis can be improved if they receive N1 lymph node dissection (D1), an extensive lymph node dissection in advanced cancers does not necessarily produce a favorable prognosis.