Sadler HM, Int J RAD Onc Bio Phys 2000;48:629

Of the 1844 patients in the Radiation Oncology prostate cancer database, 718 were deemed eligible.  Biochemical relapse was defined as 3 consecutive PSA rises. This resulted in 154 patients with biochemical failure. Survival was calculated from the third PSA elevation. The rate of rise of PSA was calculated by fitting a regression line to the four rising PSAs on a ln PSA vs. time plot.Results: There were 41 deaths among the 154 patients with failure in 23 of the 41 due to prostate cancer. The overall survival after failure was 58% at 5 years, while the cause-specific failure was 73% at 5 years.  As expected, the group of patients with biochemical failure have significantly worse prognostic factors than those without biochemical failure: median pre-RT PSA 15.9 vs. 9.0 (p < 0.001), and Gleason score of 7 or greater for 48% of subjects vs. 40% (p = 0.1). Relative PSA rise and slope of ln PSA vs. time were associated with cause-specific mortality (p < 0.001 and p = 0.007, respectively).

Increasing prostate-specific antigen profile following definitive radiation therapy for localized prostate cancer: clinical observations.

Lee WR, Hanks GE, Hanlon A   J Clin Oncol 1997 Jan;15(1):230-8

Department of Radiation Therapy, Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia, PA, USA. wrlee@bgsm.edu

One hundred fifty-one men with an increasing PSA profile after definitive radiotherapy were identified. The subsequent natural history of these men, including local recurrence, distant metastasis, and survival, was examined. In 119 men, posttreatment PSA doubling times (PSADT) were calculated using linear regression.  Patients with high pretreatment PSA values, high Gleason scores, and T3 tumors were more likely to develop a PSA elevation. The median calculated post-treatment PSADT was 13 months, and 95% of patients had posttreatment PSADT of less than 3 years. PSADT was correlated with tumor stage and Gleason score. Five years after PSA elevation, the estimated rate of clinical local recurrence is 26% and the estimated rate of distant metastases is 47%. Rapid PSADT (< 12 months) and a short interval from the end of treatment to PSA elevation (< 12 months) were significant independent predictors of distant metastases. The estimated rates of overall and cause-specific survival 5 years after PSA elevation are 65% and 76%, respectively. Gleason grade is the only significant independent predictor of overall and cause-specific survival after PSA elevation. CONCLUSION: The natural history of men who have an increasing PSA profile following definitive radiotherapy is heterogeneous. In the absence of salvage therapy, at least three quarters of men will have clinical evidence of recurrent disease 5 years after a PSA elevation is detected. Men with a rapid posttreatment PSADT and a short interval from the end of treatment to an increasing PSA profile are at a very high risk of developing distant metastasis within 5 years of PSA elevation.

Rate of PSA rise predicts metastatic versus local recurrence after definitive radiotherapy.

Sartor CI    Int J Radiat Oncol Biol Phys 1997 Jul 15;38(5):941-7

Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Michigan

Two thousand six hundred sixty-seven PSA values from 400 patients treated with radiotherapy for localized adenocarcinoma of the prostate were analyzed with respect to PSA patterns and clinical outcome. Patients had received no hormonal therapy or prostate surgery and had > 4 PSA values post-treatment. PSA rate of rise, determined by the slope of the natural log, was classified as gradual [< 0.69 log(ng/ml)/year, or doubling time (DT) > 1 year], moderate [0.69-1.4 log(ng/ml)/year, or DT 6 months-1 year], or rapid [> 1.4 log(ng/ml)/year, or DT < 6 months]. RESULTS: Sixty-one percent of patients had non-rising PSA following treatment; 25% of patients with rising PSA developed clinical failure, and 93% of patients with clinical failure had rising PSA. The rate of rise discerned different clinical failure patterns. Local failure occurred in 23% of patients with moderate rate of rise versus 7% with gradual rise (p = 0.0001). Metastatic disease developed in 46% of those with rapid rise versus 8% with moderate rise (p < 0.0001). By multivariate analysis, in addition to rate of rise, PSA nadir and rate of decline predicted local failure; those with post-treatment nadir of 1-4 ng/ml were five times more likely to experience local failure than nadir < 1 ng/ml (p = 0.0002). Rapid rate of rise was the most significant independent predictor of metastatic failure. CONCLUSIONS: The rate of PSA rise following definitive radiotherapy can predict clinical failure patterns, with a rapidly rising PSA indicating metastatic recurrence and moderately rising PSA local recurrence. This information could potentially direct therapy; if the rise predicts metastatic failure hormonal therapy could be considered, while aggressive salvage therapy may benefit subclinical local recurrence identified by a moderate rate of PSA rise.

Kinetics of serum prostate-specific antigen after external beam radiation for clinically localized prostate cancer.

Zagars GK, Pollack A   Radiother Oncol 1997 Sep;44(3):213-21

Department of Radiation Oncology, The University of Texas, M.D. Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, USA.

Eight hundred forty-one men with serial PSA determinations who underwent external beam radiation without androgen ablation were analyzed to determine postradiation PSA kinetic parameters In 263 men with a rising postradiation PSA profile the median PSA doubling time was 12.2 months (range 0.8-80.2 months). Faster doubling times were significantly associated with higher T-stage, higher Gleason grade and higher pretreatment PSA levels. Thus, patients with initially adverse disease developed faster rising PSA values after treatment than patients with less adverse disease. The most striking correlation was between rapid doubling time and the likelihood of metastatic relapse. Patients who developed metastases had a median PSA doubling time of 4.2 months compared to a median doubling time of 11.7 months in patients who developed local recurrence. Overall, patients with a PSA doubling time of less than 8 months had a 7-year actuarial metastatic rate of 54%, while patients with a PSA doubling time exceeding 8 months had only a 7% metastatic rate. Particularly ominous was the combination of a doubling time shorter than 8 months which began to rise within the first year; by 3 years 50% of these men had metastases and all were actuarially projected to develop such relapse by 6.5 years. Doubling times shorter than 8 months, especially if the rise begins in the first year, predict for metastatic relapse. However, in the absence of decisively useful treatment for metastatic prostate cancer the virtues of the early detection of metastases remain unclear.

Prostate specific antigen nadir following external beam radiation therapy for clinically localized prostate cancer: the relationship between nadir level and disease-free survival.

Lee WR, Hanlon AL, Hanks GE    J Urol 1996 Aug;156(2 Pt 1):450-3

Department of Radiation Oncology, Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA.

Biochemical failure after irradiation was defined as PSA of 1.5 ng./ml. or more and 2 consecutive serum PSA elevations. RESULTS: The 5-year overall biochemical disease-free survival rate for the entire group was 56%. PSA nadir was predictive of subsequent biochemical disease-free survival. The biochemical disease-free survival rate at 3 years was 93, 49 and 16% for PSA nadirs of 0 to 0.99, 1 to 1.99 and 2 or more ng./ml., respectively (p = 0.0001). In a multivariate analysis PSA nadir (0 to 0.99 versus 1.0 to 1.99 versus 2 or more ng./ml.) was an independent predictor of biochemical disease-free survival along with pretreatment PSA, central axis dose, Gleason grade and T stage. CONCLUSIONS: PSA nadir after radiation therapy is an indicator of subsequent biochemical disease-free survival. Patients who achieve a nadir of less than 1 ng./ml. following external beam radiation therapy have a favorable biochemical disease-free survival rate, while those with a nadir of greater than 1 ng./ml. have a high subsequent failure rate. Strategies to improve results should focus on techniques to increase the likelihood of achieving a PSA nadir of less than 1 ng./ml.